Modelación de los impactos de los escenarios de cambio climático en la cuenca del Río Pamplonita en Norte de Santander

Darwin Mena; Miguel Angel Cañon Ramos; Ana Maria Suárez Rodríguez

doi:10.24050/reia.v17i33.1265

Modeling the impacts of the scenarios of climate change in the basin of the Pamplonita River in Norte de Santander

10.24050/reia.v17i33.1265

Published 2020-04-06

Articles

How to Cite

Modeling the impacts of the scenarios of climate change in the basin of the Pamplonita River in Norte de Santander (D. Mena, M. A. Cañon Ramos, & A. M. Suárez Rodríguez, Trans.). (2020). Revista EIA, 17(33), 33015 pp. 1-12. https://doi.org/10.24050/reia.v17i33.1265

Download Citation

Publication Data

License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Copyright statement

The authors exclusively assign to the Universidad EIA, with the power to assign to third parties, all the exploitation rights that derive from the works that are accepted for publication in the Revista EIA, as well as in any product derived from it and, in in particular, those of reproduction, distribution, public communication (including interactive making available) and transformation (including adaptation, modification and, where appropriate, translation), for all types of exploitation (by way of example and not limitation : in paper, electronic, online, computer or audiovisual format, as well as in any other format, even for promotional or advertising purposes and / or for the production of derivative products), for a worldwide territorial scope and for the entire duration of the rights provided for in the current published text of the Intellectual Property Law. This assignment will be made by the authors without the right to any type of remuneration or compensation.

Consequently, the author may not publish or disseminate the works that are selected for publication in the Revista EIA, neither totally nor partially, nor authorize their publication to third parties, without the prior express authorization, requested and granted in writing, from the Univeridad EIA.

Abstract Authors References Statistics

Abstract

The following study presents the results obtained from a hydrological modeling carried out in the Pamplonita River basin, Colombia; The potential impacts of climate change on the hydrological regime of the area are determined, using global circulation models (GCM) along with the representative concentration trajectories (RCP) for the projection of climate. The variables of precipitation, temperature and flow evaluated for the current conditions and for the scenarios RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were integrated. The future climatological series, from 2015 to 2100, were generated by means of the scale reduction methodology based on the statistical method of chaos theory based on the data obtained from the global circulation model CCMS4. The data obtained was then used as input to the modeling tool for Latin America and the Caribbean Hydro-BID.

Keywords

Authors

Darwin Mena

Universidad Santo tomas
Miguel Angel Cañon Ramos

Universidad Santo Tomas
Ana Maria Suárez Rodríguez

Universidad Santo Tomas

References

Arango, y otros, 2012. Cambio climatico mas probable para colombia a lo largo del siglo XXI respecto al clima presente , Bogota: IDEAM.

Cabrera, J., s.f. Calibracion de modelos hidrologicos, Bogota: s.n.

Colombia. MINISTERIO DE AMBIENTE, V. Y. D. T., 2010. Política Nacional para la Gestión Integral del Recurso Hídrico. Bogotá, D.C.: Ministerio de Ambiente, Vivienda y Desarrollo Territorial.

Corporación Autónoma Regional de la Frontera Nororiental, 2010. Plan de ordenacion y manejo de la cuenca hidrografica del Rio Pamplonita, Cucuta: s.n.

Duarte, F. S., 2017. Técnica de reducción de escala estadística basada en la teoría del caos: Aplicación y desempeño en la Cuenca del Rio Bogotá, Bogota: s.n.

Estudio Nacional del Agua, 2014. Indides de Regulacion Hidrica. Dodumentacion.ideam.gov.co/openbiblio/bvirtual/02308/ENA_2014.pdf

Garcia, M. c., 2012. Variabilidad climatica, cambio climatico y recurso hidrico en colombia. Revista de Ingenieria Universidad de los Andes, p. 5.

IDEAM, 2015. Nuevos escenarios de cambio climatico para colombia 2011 - 2100, Bogota: Ministerio de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sostenible.

Maraun, D. y otros, 2010. Precipitation downscaling under climate change: Recent developments to bridge the gap between dynamical models and the end user. Reviews of Geophysics, Septiembre.p. 48.

Morena, F., Miralles-Wilhelm, F. & Muñoz, R., 2014. Hydro-BID: Un sistema integrado para la simulacion de impactos para el cambio climatico sobre los recursos hidricos, parte 2, s.l.: Banco interamericano de desarrollo.

Nalesso, M., 2014. Hydro-BID, s.l.: Banco Interamericano de desarrollo.

Rinner, J., Bruhn Mark, Miralles-Wihelm, F. & Muñoz Castillo, R., 2014. Base de datos de hidrologia analitica, s.l.: BID.

Rodríguez, A., 2010. Evaluación de los modelos globales del clima utilizados para la generación de escenarios de cambio climático con el clima presente en Colombia, Bogota: IDEAM.

Unidas, N., 1992. Convencion marco de las naciones unidas sobre el cambio climatico , s.l.: s.n.

Wayne, G., 2013. The beginner's guide to representative concentration pathways, Bogota: s.n.

Statistics

Abstract

0

PDF accesses

0

Dimensions

PlumX

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Appearance

Language

Navigation

User

Modeling the impacts of the scenarios of climate change in the basin of the Pamplonita River in Norte de Santander